- The sentiment of the last 5% predictions of the crowd
- Crowd Index
The Crowd Index is an ambitious research project that attempts to harness the wisdom of the crowds to create a forward looking stock market indicator. If a sufficiently large number of people got together and attempted to predict the market just a day away, how far or close would they end up?
We, at Zerodha, want to find out with your help
As of Fri 21 Nov, 2014, the 1 lakh cash prize is being discontinued. We have been forced to do this in light of the large amounts of fraudulent and malicious activity we're seeing, aimed at the cash reward. Our sincere apologies to the current players, and our congratulations to the many winners over the last few months. We hope to bring back the cash prize in the near future.
As a participant, your goal is to predict—as closely as possible—where Nifty (Spot Index) will close every day. If your prediction, made at any time 15 minutes (3:15 PM) before the daily market close at 3:30 PM, falls within a 5 point range of Nifty's close, you receive a certain number of points. You accumulate points this way, every day. At the end of the trading week, if you have accumulated the most number of points compared to the crowd, you win a cash reward of 1 lakh Rupees.
You can make a prediction (and change your prediction any number of times) any time between Saturday 12:00 AM and 3:15 PM every day. The clock is reset daily after the market closing, and you start predicting the next day's close. For example:
Saturday 12:00 AM to Monday 3:15 PM – you are predicting Monday's close
Monday 4:00 PM to Tuesday 3:15 PM – you are predicting Tuesday's close
Tuesday 4:00 PM to Wednesday 3:15 PM – you are predicting Wednesday's close
and so on ...
You can participate as many times as long as the project is running.
Based on the points you've accumulated, the maximum prize that will be given away at the end of the week is 1 lakh Rupees. The maximum points you can earn a day is 20,000. The earlier you predict during the day, the higher the points. The number of points you can earn reduces every minute.
For example, if you make a prediction at 4:00 PM on Monday for the Tuesday closing, the maximum points you can earn is 20,000. If you make a prediction for the Monday closing any time during Saturday or until 5:00 PM on Sunday, the maximum points you can earn is 20,000. On the other hand, if you make your prediction at 2 PM on Monday just before the close, the number of points you can earn is 3600.
In addition, if you get your prediction wrong, you will lose 1/20th of the points. So, for example, you predicted Tuesday's closing on Monday evening for 20,000. If your prediction ends up falling outside +15 or -15 of the Tuesday closing, you will lose 1000 points. That is, the maximum number of points you can lose in a day for a wrong prediction is just 1000.
You can change your prediction any number of times before 3:15 PM every day. When you change your prediction, your last prediction is discarded and replaced by the new one, along with the maximum number of points you can earn.
Do your research and make informed predictions! You have to get as close to Nifty as possible every day (+5 or -5 range) to collect points and win the cash reward of Rs 1lk at the end of every week if you are the one earning highest points for the week. Minimum to qualify is 50,000 points/week.
In case of multiple winners, the weekly giveaway of 1 lakh Rupees will be split in proportion to each winner's winnings.
Even if you do not win a cash prize at the end of the week, the accumulated points you have accumulated stay. The more points you have, the higher you are ranked on the leader board. In the future, your position on the leader board may entitle you to rewards such as shopping vouchers, gift coupons etc.